By Ali Karbalaei 

Staying silent more dangerous than taking action: Hezbollah chief 

January 6, 2024 - 22:53

Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on Friday spoke transparently about the latest events unfolding in the region following the Gaza war.

Speaking during a memorial service for Mohammad Hassan Yaghi (Abu Saleem), the former Lebanese MP, and his executive assistant, Nasrallah said remaining passive in such a situation is more dangerous than taking action. 

The remarks by Nasrallah came one day before the Hezbollah resistance group hit an Israeli aerial surveillance base with scores of missiles in its first response to the assassination of Hamas’s deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri by Israel in southern Beirut on Tuesday. 

One important aspect of Nasrallah's speech is the power of deterrence Hezbollah possesses today against the Israeli regime. 

Since October 8, Hezbollah has conducted nearly 700 operations against the Israeli regime's military. 

In the past, if Hezbollah waged one such operation, the regime would strike the Lebanese capital Beirut without blinking an eye. 

Today, the power of deterrence plays a major factor in limiting the exchange of fire. 

The Hezbollah leader says this opens a new opportunity for Lebanon after the current stage of fighting ends in liberating the rest of Lebanese land from the Israeli occupation. 

He was referring to the smallest territory the regime occupies: part of the town of Ghajar and the Shebaa Farms. 

"We are now at a historic point to completely liberate every inch of Lebanon," he noted, adding, "This is our official position". 

Another important aspect of Nasrallah's speech is the section he devoted to the Israeli assassination of Hamas's deputy political leader Saleh al-Arouri in southern Beirut. 

Also, Nasrallah touched on how, over the past three months, Israeli airstrikes in Syria had led to the martyrdom of several Hezbollah members. 

Before the al-Aqsa Storm Operation, Hezbollah had an equation, whereby should the regime kill any of its members in Syria, the resistance would retaliate from Lebanon, which was calm.

Now, this equation, according to Nasrallah, has changed because all the fronts have ignited. 

"If we target an Israeli military position or kill an Israeli soldier. We are already targeting many Israeli military positions and killing Israeli soldiers every day, " the Hezbollah chief noted. 

When the Israeli strike occurs in southern outskirts of the Lebanese capital, the equation must change, Nasrallah points out. 

This Israeli attack will "definitely see a response (from Hezbollah and a punishment) against the regime.” 

Nasrallah says, "We are not using the term 'at the appropriate time and place'." 

This is something the Hezbollah chief has used regularly when the Lebanese resistance retaliates against Israeli aggression. 

"The decision will go down to the front. The front will respond without waiting. And this response will be inevitable." 

In what form the response to al-Arouri’s assassination comes appears to have been kept as an element of surprise for the regime. 

Nasrallah appears to allude that the Israeli military at the northern front will pay the price, so one scenario could be an operation by Hezbollah forces that has yet to be seen over the past three months. 

A new type of weapon could be used for the first time. 

This element of surprise will keep the regime on its toes, and this is perhaps what Sayyed Nasrallah wants. 

Historically, it has been well documented that when Nasrallah warns the regime that a response will be coming, it is later executed on the battlefield. He is not known to be a person who speaks without action to back up his words. 

He also knows what weapons Hezbollah possesses and the level of damage it can inflict. 

The Hezbollah Secretary-General explains that if the resistance does not make a statement (with its response), then every individual and all areas of Lebanon will find themselves exposed in the future by the regime. 

What Nasrallah wants the Lebanese public to know is that silence towards the Israeli assassination will pose a greater danger to Lebanon’s sovereignty and territorial integrity than taking significant retaliatory action.

As is always the case, Nasrallah divides his speeches into sections. He noted that this was a good opportunity to speak about the southern front (Hezbollah's exchange of fire with the Israeli military) on the Lebanese-Israeli occupied Palestinian border. 

The goal of Hezbollah opening a front against the Israeli military since October 8, one day after the Palestinian resistance waged Operation al-Aqsa Storm, is to pressure the occupation regime and its military to end barbaric aggression against Gaza.

"Now, along the entire border, all Israeli tanks? officers, and soldiers have gone into hiding. You are required to inspect the areas carefully to target them," Nasrallah highlights. The second reason is to lessen the pressure on the resistance in Gaza, who are engaged in heroic combat against an invading force that knows no humanity. 

This second aspect reflects the fact that Hezbollah is forcing the regime to divert a significant portion of its military capabilities away from Gaza and deploy them to its northern front with the Lebanese resistance. 

When an Israeli army spokesman was asked why did you shoot dead your own captives in Gaza who were alive, shirtless, waving a white flag and shouting in Hebrew, he responded that the Israeli soldiers had been exhausted and suffering from fatigue. 

In another sign of the tiredness and fatigue among the regime's army in Gaza, a large number of Israeli soldiers have been killed by friendly fire in the enclave. 

As the Hezbollah leader points out, why can't the Israeli regime rotate its troops and allow the ones fighting in Gaza to rest? The answer is that the regime simply cannot. 

The regime can't afford to withdraw troops from the north, where Hezbollah is more powerful. 

Since 1948, and all the wars the regime has waged against Lebanon, it has always been Lebanese residents who have been displaced from their houses. 

Reflecting the danger and fear Hezbollah poses on the regime's northern front, 230,000 Israelis (according to American media, citing Israeli officials) have been displaced from their settlements in northern occupied Palestine, despite Nasrallah saying, "We do not target civilians, even if they are occupiers as well". 

One local Israeli settlement leader has spoken of 300,000 settlers being displaced in the north, reflecting the scale of the ongoing clashes. 

This underlines another failure on the part of the regime to keep its settlers safe. 

It also highlights the economic losses for the regime as the north of the occupied Palestinian territories is a highly important agricultural area that keeps the regime's economy moving. 
This is the first time Israeli settlers have been displaced from the north. 

For more than 90 days, Nasrallah noted that Hezbollah has conducted 670 operations along the border. 

He revealed that there is no single site along the entire Israeli-occupied border that has not been targeted by the Lebanese resistance more than once. 

Nasrallah divided and explained the number of operations and the range of fire against the Israeli army, which has expanded its presence across the border region. 

From Israeli tanks to military vehicles and very expensive installations used for espionage operations against all of Lebanon as well as other military positions used by the regime. 

Even when the Israeli army brought in cranes to rebuild the poles used for espionage, Hezbollah would target the cranes. 

This has forced the regime to rely on American satellite imagery to gain intelligence on Hezbollah. 

Under Hezbollah fire, it has also forced the Israeli military to withdraw from near the Lebanese border for their own safety and retreat to the settlements that have been abandoned. 

Some undercover Israeli military guards have maintained their presence on the border to keep watch in case Hezbollah or Palestinian resistance factions based in southern Lebanon storm the Israeli-occupied Shebaa Farms. 

What can be observed from Nasrallah's remarks is the incredibly high level of intelligence that Hezbollah has over the Israeli military and the movement of its forces.

A large number of Israeli tanks and military vehicles that the regime had sent to the northern front have been destroyed by Hezbollah. 

"Now, along the entire border, all Israeli tanks?, officers, and soldiers have gone into hiding. You are required to inspect the areas carefully to target them," Nasrallah highlighted. 

Many Israeli commanders and soldiers have been killed over the past three months. 

What we can decipher from Nasrallah's speech is that the regime is strongly censoring its media from reporting about the number of fatalities on its northern front.

Hezbollah has published roughly 90 videos from the battlefield. What do these videos show?

"Tanks that have been bombed, they explode sometimes with Israeli soldiers sitting on top of them, military vehicles destroyed, soldiers in a tent, a missile lands on it, soldiers in a house, the ceiling falls on the soldiers ... in front of our eyes, we see Israeli soldiers being killed or injured and the arrival of ambulances, yet the enemy does not admit their casualties," the Hezbollah chief stated. 

Nasrallah points out that sources within the Israeli government have admitted the number of soldiers who have been injured has reached 12,000 since Operation al-Aqsa Storm on October 7. 

In only eight Israeli hospitals in the north, 2,000 of the regime's troops are being treated for injuries, according to Nasrallah. 

As Sayyed Nasrallah alluded to, this is part of the psychological warfare that the Israeli regime is waging. 

If the Israeli regime acknowledges the real number of its casualties, this will offer a morale boost to the resistance forces. 

If the Israeli public is aware of the real number of army casualties and the real number of military vehicles destroyed, it would demand a timetable to end the war on Gaza. 

As one former Israeli war minister noted, this is a real humiliation for the regime and its army on its northern front. 

Should the regime announce the true number of Israeli army casualties, it will also force the regime to go to war against Lebanon?, which it knows will be very costly and very dangerous "and will lead to the explosion of the entire region" as the Hezbollah leader noted.  

Nasrallah also touched on the Iraqi resistance, targeting illegal American occupation bases and how the al-Aqsa Storm provides an opportunity for the Iraqi resistance to kick out the U.S. military occupation for a second time.