TEHRAN – Chinese oil refineries are confident that flows from the Islamic Republic of Iran will continue despite the recent conflict between Hamas and Israel, betting Washington will seek to avoid a surge in global crude prices.

As Bloomberg reported, China’s independent refiners, known as teapots, have been enthusiastic buyers of Iranian oil of late. However, Iran’s stance against the Israeli regime could put that trade under threat. There’s a risk the White House takes a tougher stance on sanctions enforcement, reversing a looser approach that has allowed Iran to increase output by more than half a million barrels a day this year.

For now at least, several Chinese refiners and traders involved in buying Iranian crude said they did not anticipate a crackdown or any disruptions. Even with Washington under pressure to act, the Biden administration will have an eye on inflationary pressures ahead of a presidential election next year, they said, asking not to be named as they are not authorized to speak publicly.

In the past, sanctions haven’t been very effective in damping China’s enthusiasm for Iranian oil, with the crude often disguised as coming from other origins, most notably Malaysia.

This year the surge in flows has been helped by a softer approach to sanctions enforcement. Chinese purchases of Iranian oil soared to 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, the most in a decade, data intelligence firm Kpler said.

Earlier this month, a Reuters survey showed that the Islamic Republic has managed to push its oil output to 3.15 million bpd, the highest since 2018, the year Washington re-imposed sanctions on Iran.

Analysts have said the higher Iranian exports appear to be the result of Iran's success in evading U.S. sanctions and Washington's discretion in enforcing them, the survey found on October 3.

EF/MA