The intricate tapestry of historical and cultural connections between France and Africa is in the midst of a seismic recalibration.

France's once unassailable stature as a colonial force on the continent is confronting an array of fresh and formidable trials, most notably underscored by the recent unfolding of events in Niger subsequent to the ousting of President Mohamed Bazoum on the 26th of July. The reverberations of potential military interference, emanating from both global and regional actors, have laid bare a transformative terrain where France's firm grasp over its erstwhile colonies seems to be slipping through its fingers. As the chapters of history and power dynamics realign, a new narrative is being written—one that demands an astute understanding of the evolving dynamics at play in this complex intercontinental relationship.

The Great Game revisited: France's declining influence

In the annals of history, the term "Great Game" carries with it the echoes of a bygone era of geopolitical rivalry and intrigue. Originating during the nineteenth century, this term encapsulates the intense strategic contest between the British and Russian empires for supremacy in the expansive and enigmatic terrain of Central Asia. This engrossing saga of power plays and maneuvers extended its gripping narrative to encompass regions such as Afghanistan, India, and the southern reaches of Russia. Both empires, fueled by their ambitions, engaged in a complex dance of espionage, skillful diplomacy, and discreet military engagements, all in an effort to expand their respective spheres of influence without plunging into the abyss of full-scale conflict.

In a parallel historical context, one can discern a reminiscent pattern in France's endeavors within West Africa over the course of the last century and a half. Analogous to the "Great Game," France's historical engagement in this region has been marked by its aspirations to establish and maintain control and influence. However, recent times have witnessed a notable weakening of France's once-firm grip on the region. The ascent of jihadi terrorist groups, adept at exploiting the vacuum of authority, coupled with a surge in military coups harboring anti-French sentiments, has eroded France's historical dominance in the region's power dynamics.

Adding a new layer of complexity to this unfolding narrative are the entrance and calculated moves of global powerhouses. Chief among them are Russia and, particularly, China, whose strategic designs in the region aim to carve out a foothold, extend their geopolitical sway, and harness the bounteous natural resources and markets that a penetration into West Africa can afford. As these influential actors make their presence felt, the very equilibrium of power is poised to shift, creating a fresh set of challenges to France's traditional hegemony.

Yet, amid these sweeping transformations in the Francophone expanse of West Africa, a fascinating undercurrent emerges: the emergence of anti-French and anti-Western sentiment within the populace. This sentiment has lent legitimacy to military elites that have orchestrated the overthrow of leaders with pro-French inclinations. This multifaceted backdrop sets the stage for a comprehensive inquiry into the waning influence of France. Central to this exploration is the examination of the intricate web of perceptions shared between France and Africans, a lens through which the internal dynamics of West African societies can be better understood.

The multifaceted manifestations of the French retreat

The manifestations of the French retreat from Africa are vividly apparent through a spectrum of compelling indicators that underscore the waning of French influence across the continent. Among these indicators, none are more striking than the recent conversion of Gabon and Togo, both Francophone nations with no historical British colonial ties, into members of the Anglophone Commonwealth during the Kigali summit of 2022. This seismic shift serves as a stark testament to the erosion of France's once-dominant sway. This transformation can be attributed to a confluence of factors that illuminate the changing landscape of global relations.

Foremost among these factors are the economic advantages that align with this strategic decision. The allure of enhanced trade prospects within the 54-member Commonwealth bloc is compelling, especially given that many of Africa's burgeoning economies are English-speaking. Moreover, the move fortifies ties with the prevailing global language of business, English, amplifying the potential for economic growth. The aftermath of Brexit accentuates this pivot, as African nations seek to forge direct relationships with the United Kingdom, free from the constraints of EU trade regulations. This pivot echoes the prior inclusion of non-British colonial nations, such as Mozambique in 1995 and Rwanda in 2009, indicating a broader trend.

Beneath the surface, this shift also echoes cultural and political realignments that discernibly distance French influence from economic stagnation. The desire to sever ties with the vestiges of colonial linguistic and cultural bonds underscores the notion that such detachment may invigorate development. This sentiment is particularly pronounced in Togo, reflecting a broader sentiment across Francophone Africa that connects French influence with economic constraints, fostering a renewed desire for self-directed growth.

Strategically, the move to join the Commonwealth should not be viewed solely as a decline in France's sway; rather, it is emblematic of a broader trend toward diversified international engagement. This reframing does not necessarily undermine France's relevance, but rather signifies African nations' aspiration to broaden their global horizons, seeking multifaceted partnerships that resonate with their evolving needs.

The resurgence of political Sankarism constitutes another compelling manifestation of the French retreat. Rooted in the ideology of Thomas Sankara, the former President of Burkina Faso, this movement champions Pan-Africanism, economic autonomy, and wealth redistribution. Sankara's legacy reverberates through contemporary Africa, inspiring activists and leaders who espouse principles of change and equity. Recent military upheavals in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger appear to be drawing on this historical legacy, evoking a spirit of transformation and justice that resonates with African populations.

Simultaneously, the increasing clout of alternate global powers further underscores France's diminishing influence. Russia's burgeoning military presence, facilitated by private military companies like the Wagner Group, offers Moscow a shadowy means to expand its reach, circumventing traditional military interventions. China's economic ascendancy is equally significant, as its investment-driven approach, devoid of political conditions, appeals to African nations seeking swift developmental progress. China' substantial infrastructure undertakings, loans, and direct investments yield tangible and immediate benefits, further enhancing its standing on the continent.

In the realm of diplomacy and soft power, significant rearrangements are palpable. Western sanctions and the Russia axis, prompted by geopolitical developments such as the Ukrainian crisis, have impelled Moscow to cultivate alliances in alternative regions, including Africa. China's diplomatic endeavors, epitomized by the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, have solidified strategic partnerships and provided African nations with a pivotal platform for engagement with Beijing.

In essence, the challenges confronting France in West Africa are intricate and multifaceted, arising from the region's internal dynamics and the shifting tides of global geopolitics. The contemporary "Great Game" unfolding across Africa is marked by a nuanced interplay of economic might, soft power, and traditional military engagements. 

In the upcoming article, we will comprehensively explore African perceptions of France and dissect the intricate factors that shape the dynamics of France-West Africa relations.