Under the agreement announced on Friday, Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to restore diplomatic ties after seven years of tensions. The agreement seems to have potentially wide implications for MENA region as well as global dynamics.

The tripartite statement was issued in Beijing signed by Ali Shamkhani, the representative of the Supreme Leader and Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran; Mosaed bin Mohammed Al-Aiban, the National Security adviser, Minister of State and member of the Council of Ministers of Saudi Arabia; and Wang Yi,  member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party and Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission of the Chinese Communist Party. 

As a result of the talks, Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to resume diplomatic relations and reopen embassies and representatives within two months. The foreign ministers of the two countries will meet each other to implement this decision and make the necessary arrangements for the exchange of ambassadors. 

The different dimensions of this agreement have been examined by Chinese, Iranian and Arab IR scholars and politicians. In this article, first, Prof. Yuan Zhang discusses China’s role in MENA security architechture. Then, Amir M. Esmaeili scrutinizes the role of Iran in regional and global dynamics, and in the last part, El Houcine Zraidi investigates how and in which ways the Saudi-Iran agreement might transform the Arab World. 

China and MENA security architecture 

On the Chinese side, Chinese President Xi Jinping's active initiative to support the development of good neighborliness between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran marks a major step forward for peace in the MENA region, highlighting the increased state autonomy of the region and signaling that China's “Global Security Initiative” (GSI) is receiving a strong and practical response from the MENA powers. It also means that China's “Global Security Initiative” is receiving a strong response from the MENA powers.

The speech of Wang Yi, who presided over the closing ceremony of the Iranian-Saudi dialogue in Beijing, well explains the significance of restoring diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia for the current world, namely that the improvement of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia opens the way to peace and stability in the the MENA, and is a new model for resolving conflicts and differences between countries through dialogue and consultation.

Earlier, in December 2022, President Xi attended the first China-Arab States Summit, the China-Gulf Arab States Cooperation Council Summit and paid a state visit to Saudi Arabia. In February 2023, President Raisi of Iran paid a state visit to China. These visits laid an excellent foundation for the Joint Trilateral Statement. In fact, as early as the beginning of the 13th Five-Year Plan, in January 2016, at the invitation of King Salman of Saudi Arabia, President Sisi of Egypt and President Rouhani of the Iran, President Xi Jinping paid a state visit to the above three countries from January 19 to 23. 

During that visit, China announced the establishment of comprehensive strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia and Iran respectively, which provides a more solid foundation for deepening mutual political trust, promoting mutually beneficial cooperation and strengthening humanistic exchanges. In President Xi’s speech at the headquarters of the League of Arab State in 2016, President Xi put forward Chinese proposals on the MENA question, “Where should the MENA be headed?”, pointing out that root causes of the turmoil in the MENA lies in lack of development, and the ultimate solution will depend on development, taking dialogue as the “golden rule”. This provides a new way of thinking to promote the MENA peace process.

China supports MENA countries to strengthen dialogue, attach importance to people's livelihood and development requirements, advocate taking care of the reasonable security concerns of all parties, strengthen the internal forces of safeguarding regional security, and support regional organizations to play a greater constructive role, which are China's consistent solutions to prevent and resolve regional security challenges.

The security concept advocated by China does not deviate from the international system that adheres to the purposes and principles of the Charter of the UN and practices ture multilateralism. This is concretely demonstrated in the tripartite joint statement by emphasis on adhering to the principles and objectives of Charter of the United Nations and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, and international conventions and norms.

China can play a strong mediation role in the MENA peace affairs. China is playing a constructive role in MENA affairs?respect their sovereignty and dignity in the meantime. 

The Beijing Dialogue has become a successful exercise in the strong implementation of the Global Security Initiative. China has proved that it is fully capable of fulfilling its role as a well-meaning and reliable mediator and host of hotspot issues. China is a true friend of the MENA countries.

The release of this significant news that Saudi Arabia and Iran have reached an agreement, which coincides with China's “two sessions”, enhance the diplomatic profile and diplomatic status of China, Iran and Saudi Arabia. The Beijing Dialogue proves that the MENA countries can gradually emerge from the internal regional quagmire and play a greater role in world politics.

Iran and new power dynamics 

Iranian scholars and politicians have discussed Iran-Saudi Arabia agreement from different prespectives. This part seeks to discover and categorize Iranian different prespectives toward the Iran-Saudi Arabia agreement with China’s mediation.  

1.President Raisi Look East policy

Following the US withdrawal from the JCPOA, assisanation of General Soleimani, EU dissolution of INSTEX, and the maximum pressure campaign, the new administration in Tehran came to decision to  pursue a combination of “neighborhood policy” and “Eurasianism policy” in its foreign policy orientation. Mohammad Jamshidi, Deputy Chief of Staff for Political Affairs to Iran's President, for instance believes that “Good neighborly and brotherly policies with Eurasian integration create economic and security benefits free from foreign intervention.” Ali Bahadri Jahormi, Iran's government spokesperson, also argued that “the historic agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia in China” should be considered as the result of a “series of purely Asian negotiations that is capable to shape regional relations without foreign interference.” 

2. Tehran and Riyadh positive response toward China's  global initiatives 

As a comprehensive economic plan, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is approaching its own 10th anniversary this year. Subsequently, a new circle of systematic and interconnected initiatives called “The Global Security Initiative” and “The Global Development Initiative” have been proposed by China, which is based on Chinese concept of “Building a Community of a Shared Future for Mankind”. The tripartite agreement between Iran, China and Saudi Arabia can be conceptualized in the framework of these initiatives, in which all three parties will pursue win-win cooperation in non-zero-sum-game ground. “This agreement can help to improve regional stability and security, increase cooperation among the countries of the Persian Gulf and the Islamic World and empower them to deal with the challenges,” Ali Shamkhani stated. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf also believes that “restoring relations with Saudi Arabia is a major step in line with stability of region and Persian Gulf, as well as broader political and economic regional cooperation.” 

3. Security implications of the agreement for West Asia and North Africa

Iranian scholars believe that this agreement and its successful implementations will have major security implications in cooling down tensions in West Asia and North African region. Seyyed Mohammad Marandi, for instance, articulated that the deal in Beijing will bring about greater stability across the region, including “peace in Yemen, rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Syria and an improved political environment in Lebanon can be more easily achieved under the new circumstances.”

4. Promoting a new pattern of cooperative competitions in West Asia and North Africa

Seemingly, this agreement can satisfy all parties, even the United States. That’s because Saudi’s security concern will be diminished and, consequently, Riyadh's pressure on Washington for more security guarantees and military presence in the Persian Gulf will decrease. Although the US is not satisfied with China's rising influence over the Persian Gulf and beyond, but, pragmatically it will divide the regional security responsibility between the two powers. As a result, Washington would be able to concentrate more on its own foreign policy priorities. “This agreement might be considered as a part of the new regional order in West Asia along with the US gradual withdrawal from the region, the Chinese desire to play a constructive role, as well as Russian involvement in Ukraine. This will inevitably lead to competition between Iran and Saudi Arabia in the long run. The lack of economic relations, however, might provide a new pretext for the security destructive competition between two counties,” argued Rahman Ghahremanpour, an Iranian journalist.

5. Chance for resuming Iran nuclear talks increases 

It seems that this agreement can increase the possibility of resuming Iran nuclear talks in foreseeable future. Considering the US accusation of securing regional allies' interests in any possible deal with Iran, the agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, thus, can be seen as a reassurance in reviving the JCPOA. Moreover, China's efforts to revive the JCPOA as well as Beijing's friendly relations with both Tehran and Riyadh might encourage Saudi Arabia to persuade the US for a constructive agreement with Iran. However, this agreement would provide Iran with bargaining power around the negotiating table.

6. Israel and new regional security equation

Iranian IR scholars believe that Israel might be seen as the big loser of this normalization. Israel’s preferred option was an alliance with Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries against Iran, and then they would have to pay their share in any possible confrontation. According to some Iranian IR scholars, including Diako Hosseini, “The balance of power mechanism won't stop at this stage, and following the agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia under China's mediation, the possibility of normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel under US mediation will also increase.”

7. Ending Iran's social unrest and the failure of US plan B

The end of protests in Iran has led Beijing and Riyadh to the conclusion that cognitive campaigns will not lead to regime change in Iran. “This agreement mediated by China is good news for us and probably bad news for the supporters of Plan B in Washington and Tel Aviv. Riyadh, also, has played a destructive role in the recent cognitive campaigns against Tehran. Therefore, until the tangible change of the tone of the Western and Arab media, this agreement cannot be considered a great achievement. So, let's wait for the results,” Mehdi Kharatyan, a researcher at the Sharif University of Technology, articulated.  

A beacon of hope: How the Saudi-Iran agreement is transforming the Arab World

The restoration of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran has been met with widespread support and optimism from Arab nations and organizations. China's foreign policy values played a key role in the restoration of ties and have been praised in the MENA region. While some, like Morocco, may need time to fully understand the significance of the new relationship, the accord is anticipated to have positive impacts on regional stability and international mediation efforts. It also resumes the possibility of opening the door for similar talks between Iran and the United Arab Emirates, and inspire a new relationship between all Arab countries and Iran with Chinese characteristics.

A new dawn in Arab diplomacy: Praise for the restoration of Saudi-Iran relations

Arab countries’ stance toward this regional geopolitical change is clear, as they have wholeheartedly welcomed the restoration of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, expressing their optimism for the future of the region. The move has been commended by numerous Arab nations and organizations, including the  GCC and its secretary general, Jassim Muhammad Al-Budaiwi. Other countries such as the Sultanate of Oman, Iraq, Egypt, Algeria, Jordan, Palestine Authority, Sudan, Ansar Allah in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) have also praised the accord and expressed their hopes that it will contribute to reducing regional tensions and safeguarding Arab national security capabilities. In addition, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman Al Thani, the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Qatar, has welcomed the joint tripartite statement issued by Saudi Arabia, Iran, and China. Tunisia and other countries have also expressed gratitude to China for its role in bringing about this agreement and expressed their aspirations for the reinforcement of security and stability in the area.

Opening the door to diplomacy: How the agreement may impact the Arab World

As for the impact of these new relations on Arab countries, the relation is viewed by Arab countries in general as a positive development that strengthens China's ability to mediate international disputes, especially in light of the ongoing crisis between Russia and Ukraine. This is thought to increase the legitimacy of China's recent efforts to end the dispute between these nations, and strengthen the trust of China in dealing with delicate political affairs. The accord is also anticipated to help stabilize the situation in Lebanon, put a stop to the Yemeni conflict, and restore Syria's regional and international standing. Additionally, it is anticipated that the reconciliation will hasten the Belt and Road Initiative's completion. The accord might also open the door to similar talks between Iran and the United Arab Emirates, increasing Tehran's political clout in the area and securing its Persian Gulf front. In the whole Arab world, this new relation could be a new inspiration that aim to forge a new relation between all Arab countries and Iran with Chinese characterstics.

Beyond MENA: China's potential as a regional peacemaker and Morocco's place in the puzzle

Despite widespread support among Arab nations and organizations for the restoration of diplomatic links between Saudi Arabia and Iran, some, such as Morocco, may need time to fully understand the significance of the new relationship. Some may see this alliance as a negative sign, as it could bolster Algeria's influence in the international coalition; is the scenario of an Iranian-Algerian pact to back the Polisario; and weaken the connection between Morocco and Saudi Arabia's position on Iran. This is especially true now that Morocco has strengthened its ties with Israel and the United States. Others may not directly link this celebrated resumption of diplomatic relations with the Moroccan scenario, asserting that these two situations are about two different regions and it's important to not mix West Asian regional conflict with the Moroccan case. 

Another key aspect in the restart of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran is that it has been created with the wisdom of China's foreign policy. China's foreign policy values, such as non-interference in domestic affairs, respect for territorial sovereignty, and win-win cooperation, played a key role in the restoration of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran. These high values have been widely praised in MENA countries, and has helped to forge trusting relationships between China and Arab countries. Given China's success in promoting regional peace and security by convincing both Iran and Saudi Arabia to adopt these foreign policy values, there is a strong expectation that China will be able to play the same role in convincing Iran to adopt the non-interference policy with all Arab countries, Morocco among them.

Prof. Yuan Zhang (Professor, The Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University, China)

Amir Mohammad Esmaeili (PhD Candidate, School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Shanghai International Studies University, China)

El Houcine Zraidi (PhD Candidate, School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Shanghai International Studies University, China)