TEHRAN – Hossein Askari, a professor emeritus of business and international affairs at George Washington University, sees the high-profile visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Saudi Arabia as effort to “reduce the power and presence of the United States in the Persian Gulf” by capitalizing on the “rocky relationship” between U.S. President Joe Biden and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS).

In an interview with the Tehran Times, Askari says China’s presence in the Persian Gulf “makes it more difficult for the United States to pivot to the Pacific.”

President Xi landed in Riyadh on December 7 for a three-day visit. On final day of his visit, Xi attended a gathering of the six-member Persian Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and a broader China-Arab leaders' meeting. Speaking at the start of the China-GCC summit, Xi said, "China will continue to firmly support the GCC countries in maintaining their own security ... and build a collective security framework for the (Persian) Gulf."

Xi also said, "China will continue to import large quantities of crude oil from GCC countries on an ongoing basis."

Professor Askari, who served as a member of the executive board of the International Monetary Fund, also suggested that “Iran could learn from China and focus on domestic economic reforms.”

Following is the text of the interview:

Question: How do you see Xi’s visit to Saudi Arabia?

Answer: Xi sees a clear opening to reduce the power and presence of the United States in the Persian Gulf. Biden and MBS have a rocky relationship. Biden is weak. So MBS feels he can push the United States around and I must add he has done so pretty well up to now. The U.S. says little about Yemen, he is given immunity from prosecution in the United States, he gets all the arms he wants, all the intelligence, the maintenance of his military equipment and Biden says nothing of his human rights policies.  This is a good time for Saudi Arabia to lock in foreign backers and especially to weaken Iran. MBS is looking for a foreign partner who will go all in with him. Who better than Xi who is not afraid to push Iran aside? Xi has even stepped in to support UAE territorial claims over Abu Moussa and Tunbs. While China gets enhanced access not just to Saudi Arabia but also to the other countries of the GCC. And as a result, better access to oil, LNG and capital if ever needed and a good market for its exports. Iran cannot offer what the GCC offers to China. And again, MBS is doing this at a time when there is a weak U.S. president all too afraid of domestic politics—inflation, Israeli lobby support for Saudi Arabia and against Iran to challenge him.

Q: Some analysts view Xi’s visit to Saudi Arabia as an effort to exploit Riyadh-Washington tensions. What is your comment?

A: Absolutely as I have already said. But MBS is taking this great opportunity to get what he wants from China and get closer to China knowing that the U.S. President won’t do a thing against him and he will continue begging for higher oil output. But don’t forget, MBS and the Israelis are telling Biden that Iran is dangerous to further isolate Iran and get more U.S. backing. Iran is the country being squeezed. I am afraid Iran does not show a deep understanding of the GCC and the United States.  

Q: Some also see the visit as part of a wider Chinese strategy to promote an alternative to the Western-led security order. Your opinion please.

A: This is a longer-term issue. But as it stands, Xi in the Persian Gulf makes it more difficult for the United States to pivot to the Pacific, which is Xi’s ultimate concern—to reduce the likelihood of a growing U.S. presence in the Pacific with enhanced cooperation with Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand and the like.

Q: There is a view among the Iranian public and certain political analysts mostly aligned to the reform faction that China prioritizes ties with Saudi Arabia over Iran. This view was strengthened as China signed a joint statement with Saudi Arabia in which there was a mention of the three Iranian islands of Abu Moussa and Greater and Lesser Tunbs which the UAE claims ownership. What is your analysis?

A: I agree one hundred percent. For all the reasons I have already said, Iran matters much less to China. Please understand. Iran’s economy is weak. It does not afford a great market for Chinese exports. Iran’s LNG development is decades behind Qatar’s. Iran’s oil fields need much work. And yes, Iran is under sanctions with no light at the end of the tunnel. Iran is isolated but the GCC is being courted by Europe, the United States and China’s neighbors in the Pacific. As for the three islands, Iran should never even discuss the issue. 

Q: On the other hand, some analysts consider Xi’s visit to Saudi Arabia as an effort by Beijing to create a kind of balance between the Arab states on the southern shores of the Persian Gulf and Iran. What is your comment?

A: I think this view is totally wrong and off the chart. China does not care about a balance between Arab states on the southern shores of the Persian Gulf and Iran. Just China’s economic and security interests. Iran could learn from China and focus on domestic economic reforms, something that Iran badly needs. 

Q: The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman recently said that U.S. sanctions are preventing the materialization of the 25-year strategic partnership between Iran and China. Don’t you think that China’s new agreements with Saudi Arabia will further affect the partnership?

A: Yes, China will so no need to proceed with this as envisaged when it was signed as China has a better option now in Saudi Arabia and the GCC—better economic prospects and less conflict with the United States and the rest of the West.