TEHRAN - In recent weeks some surveys show that Donald Trump, regardless of how much he is hated by some segments of the American society, he will win the November election. 

The same happened in 2016. In the previous election, many surveys had shown Hilary Clinton is the next president, but she did not. Maybe many ask how it happened and why surveys made a mistake in their conclusions. 

But in this op-ed, I do not intend to speak about the principle of the survey defects or why the results are wrong. I want to say why I am almost sure that Joe Biden will be the next president. 

At the first couple of months of Trump's inauguration, I predicted his competitor in the 2020 election, will be the next president. But maybe you ask me how are you sure the next president will be sleepy Joe?

Many analysts around the world are unanimously saying Biden is not the best candidate for the president. He is not charismatic as Obama was. He has a problem in social connection and it is a weak point that

Trump take advantage of it. 

Moreover, he is too old and many who vote for the Democrats are young. But many analysts are sure he will be the next president. This belief comes of Trump’s actions. The biggest Trump’s ability is how he could use Machiavelli's advice in his work. He is a big liar. He is a populist and has the ability to gather vulnerable people around himself. 

He uses the conspiracy theory in his speeches to show that every miserable thing that happens in the world is because of the small groups who rule the world. 

He hates China because many laborers in America hate China and this is a good card to play with it. He blames all those who are against him. He knew everything about the coronavirus at the beginning but he intentionally did nothing. 

He coined a new name for coronavirus and called it China virus. He uses this term to blame China. He says China made it. Scientists disagree, but he insists on it. He is a showman. He exaggerates in his speeches. He uses bombastic words, like tremendous, great job or biggest. 

Trump always use these words without comparing things to each other. He said except the Lincoln government his government was the best in history that worked for the black people. No body asks him how he says such junk words. 

He lies without any shame. He does not know the difference between bacteria and virus but he shows himself as a great scientist that knows what is good for people in the coronavirus pandemic. Such behavior is good for millions of Americans. It wrongly shows that he is a determined and reliable leader in crises. 

However, Trump is not a good candidate for the people who are logical.

Abraham Lincoln has a very famous quote that says: “You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.” From the first days that he took over as president, he started to divide people to different groups. He tried to scare one group from another. He is popular between the poor and religious people. 

All people know that he is a billionaire and is not a religious person but he is a good actor and could pretend he is. He has run casinos during his life. He has relations with prostitutes. But he could play his role as a superman for these groups very well. 

The Oscar academy should candidate him as the best leading role actor. He could fool people very easily but from the first day he made a very big mistake. He did not care about the difference between politics and business. As Kissinger mentions on CNN’s GPS show, dealing with politics is different from business. From the first day, he ignored women, black people, and minority groups. In the beginning days, all women understood he wants to keep his seat for the next term, and because of that, he will do everything to make white and religious people happy. Abortion rights and many other rights that women have gained over the past 100 years are now under threat.

After his presidency, black people faced an increased rate of racism in the United States. Hate and discrimination have again resurfaced in many neighborhoods. Hispanic groups and Asian have been insulted over the nearly four years of his presidency. 

Hispanic people are mentioned in Trump’s speeches as a big problem for the U.S. economy, calling them rapist, burglar and smuggler. Asians and now Chinese are the first blamed for the coronavirus pandemic. All these groups have gotten frustrated. 

It is absolutely clear most of these groups will participate in the election and will give vote to Biden. One point is important and no analyst should ignore that. The U.S. election is different from other countries.

Tiny and small groups could change the result of the election. The electoral vote has the ability by only one vote in bailout to give all of the votes in one state to one candidate. For example in the 2000 election only a hundred votes in Florida made Gorge W. Bush the president. In this situation the role of the Supreme Court is important and you see most of the Republicans in the Senate want to choose a new judge for the Supreme Court as soon as possible. 

However, nobody can manipulate the election if people participate in the election. Now many analysts believe that you can count on the votes of the blacks, Asians, and Hispanics, who are living in all states, for Biden and he will be elected the next president.