An unworkable economic plan is mixed with unvarnished xenophobia

The national interest comes first. Sovereignty must be restored to the people. No one must be forgotten. A choice of civilization lies ahead, a choice between destructive globalism and patriotic defense of the nation.

If these Trumpian slogans sound familiar, the echoes are intentional. Marine Le Pen, launching her bid for the Elysée at the weekend, was at pains to remind her supporters that presidents like Donald Trump cannot only be elected, but can act on their campaign promises. The leader of the far right National Front, long an extreme voice on the fringes of French politics, has fused anti-immigrant sentiment with growing Euroscepticism and hostility to globalization. Sensing a chance of victory, she has unveiled a clear outline, in the form of 144 “presidential commitments”, of what she intends to do, should she win power.

Much of the program is standard National Front fare: more police and prison places, a reintroduction of national service, an extreme clampdown on immigration. Le Pen is careful to avoid overtly racist language, talking instead of the threat posed by extremists. But she opposes all visible signs of Muslim identity — calling for “assimilation” above “integration” and for enforcing secularism in all public spaces.
These policies attract a wider audience than in the past. But the reason Le Pen is winning over new constituencies is her promise of “intelligent protectionism”. In her manifesto, she spells out what this would mean.

There would be a state-led industrial policy, favoring manufacturing over finance. Imports and foreign workers would be taxed, foreign investment subject to strict controls and national industry subsidized, not least by a huge expansion in military spending — with all new equipment to be supplied by the French defense industry.

Almost as an aside, there is a half sentence committing to scrap the euro and reintroduce a national currency. Another half sentence promises to authorize direct financing of the Treasury by the Banque de France. There are expensive promises to drop the retirement age to 60, slash income taxes and allow huge tax-free transfers of wealth to the next generation. Very few proposals would offset these costs. But there is no attempt to do anything as mundane as make the sums add up.

Needless to say, none of this is compatible with EU norms — but this is scarcely relevant, since one of the first acts of a Le Pen presidency would be to hold a referendum on France’s EU membership. The idea that France could prosper under these policies is laughable — but that does not make them impossible, or any less seductive.

Moreover, the ideology that underpins her manifesto is both coherent and deeply rooted in French society. The NF’s origins lie in the 1970s, when its support was drawn from former Vichy collaborators. Le Pen has gone to great lengths to sanitize the party and widen its appeal, but its xenophobic, nationalist, authoritarian underpinnings remain intact.

After the shocks of the U.S. election and the vote for Brexit, there may be a temptation to overplay Le Pen’s chances of victory. Polls still suggest that she would lose in the second round of the election to almost any mainstream candidate. But the French establishment is entirely discredited. Her opponent on the right, François Fillon, is mired in scandal. Despite the buzz around Emmanuel Macron, the centrist newcomer is largely untested.

The chance of a Le Pen presidency may still be slim — but there should be no doubt of the dire consequences for Europe should she succeed.

(Source: FT)