Persian Gulf Arab states “fear being abandoned by their U.S. protector” if a nuclear deal is reached between Iran and the 5+1 group of world powers, the Financial Times wrote in an article on May 9.

The Obama administration, on the other hand, has been scrambling to come up with a series of measures to reassure America’s Persian Gulf Arab allies that “they were not being sold out”, the article said.
However, the article added, the U.S. also harbors considerable doubts about the coherence of the [P]GCC as a diplomatic grouping, let alone as a military alliance. Washington has for years been pushing the group to develop more coordinated military capabilities, only for internal rivalries to interfere, it added.

The following is an expert of the article, published on Monday:

Syria’s misery shows no sign of ending; Libya is torn in half; the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant is making gains in Iraq; and Yemen is sliding into a humanitarian crisis. When Barack Obama hosts leaders from the Persian Gulf at Camp David on Thursday, he will be confronted by a Middle East that is coming apart at the seams.

His goal will be to win quiet acquiescence for his nuclear diplomacy with Iran from the [Persian] Gulf Cooperation Council countries, which fear being abandoned by their U.S. protector.

With the nuclear talks approaching their end-June deadline, Mr. Obama’s Sunni Muslim guests will probe his willingness to check Shia Iran’s influence in the region in the event of a nuclear deal and test his commitment to the Persian Gulf at a time of declining oil imports from the region and a shale gas boom at home.

“The nuclear deal is the hinge for the region,” says John Jenkins, former British ambassador to Saudi Arabia. “Is a deal a framework for containing Iran or is it a framework for an eventual expansion of Iranian interests?”

Mr. Obama called the summit immediately after U.S. negotiators announced in March that they had reached a “framework” agreement with Tehran. Under fire from Congress and Israel over his nuclear diplomacy, Mr. Obama was looking for a way to reassure America’s Persian Gulf allies that they were not being sold out.

But at the time the White House had little idea of what it wanted to offer the members of the [P]GCC, which is made up of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait. One U.S. official described the summit as “the start of a conversation”.

Since then, the Obama administration has been scrambling to come up with a series of measures to convince Persian Gulf leaders the U.S. is not about to let Iran dominate the region.

“President Obama completely understands the stakes,” John Kerry, U.S. secretary of state, said last week in Paris. “We are fleshing out a series of new commitments that will create between the United States and the [P]GCC a new security understanding, a new set of security initiatives.”

-------- Kind words and weapons

One part of the likely reassurance package will be a new American commitment to its allies in the region. The Persian Gulf Arabs have long pushed for the sort of formal alliance that the U.S. has with Japan. But a treaty with the Persian Gulf countries — even if the administration wanted to offer such an agreement — would likely fall foul of a Congress that would oppose awarding privileges not also enjoyed by Israel.

Instead, the Persian Gulf countries are pushing for a looser commitment that could still include some sort of written document spelling out when and how the U.S. might intervene in the event that its allies were confronted by Tehran.

Yousef al-Otaiba, the UAE ambassador to the U.S., says the region has in the past had a “gentleman’s agreement” with the U.S. “We need something in writing, something institutionalized.”

In parallel to diplomatic assurances, the [P]GCC leaders will also be pushing for increased arms sales from the U.S. They will probably point out that other countries are willing to provide advanced weapons. France recently signed a $7bn deal with Qatar for 24 Rafale fighter jets.

Some of the [P]GCC militaries would like to buy the F-35, the new generation of U.S. fighter jet which Washington has so far only agreed to sell to Israel and Turkey. The UAE is also hoping to win approval in Washington to purchase Predator surveillance drones. However, any attempt to sell the most advanced systems will probably prompt opposition from members of Congress who want to make sure that Israel maintains a military edge over its neighbors.

Moreover, the [P]GCC countries would have to make a case that they need more weapons to deal with a potential threat from Iran. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, military spending in Saudi Arabia reached $80bn last year, making it the fourth largest in the world, while the UAE spent $23bn, placing it 14th. Estimates for Iran’s military budget range from $10bn to $17bn.

-------- [P]GCC coherence

The U.S. also harbors considerable doubts about the coherence of the [P]GCC as a diplomatic grouping, let alone as a military alliance. Washington has for years been pushing the group to develop more coordinated military capabilities, only for internal rivalries to interfere.

The [P]GCC has been split over how to approach the Muslim Brotherhood, which briefly governed Egypt, with Qatar offering support for the Islamist group while the UAE, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia were so opposed they withdrew ambassadors from Doha. Qatar and the UAE, for instance, have been backing different sides in the Libyan civil war.

The most important — and politically toxic — theme will be Mr. Obama’s view on relations with Iran. It has become an article of faith among some in the Persian Gulf and the president’s domestic opponents that he is seeking a much broader rapprochement with Iran, which could even see Tehran returning to the position it enjoyed under the Shah as Washington’s preferred partner in the region.

MD/PA