NEW DELHI (The Hindu) -- The world cereal production this year is set to increase by 4.3 percent to a record 2,082 million tons, according to the latest issue of the Food and Agriculture Organization's Crop Prospects and Food Situation Report. This is four percent up from last year's output and almost 10 million tons above the previous high in 2004.

The bulk of the increase is expected in maize, pushing the aggregate coarse cereals production up by 5.6 percent to 1,033 million tons. A bumper maize crop is already being gathered in South America, and a sharp increase in plantings is expected in the United States in response to a strong demand for ethanol production.

Marginal rise in rice

The FAO has forecast coarse grain production to rise by 5.6 percent to 1,033 million tons, and wheat to increase by 4.8 percent to about 626 million tons. Global rice production in 2007 could rise marginally to 423 million tons in milled terms, about three million tons more than in 2006.

An anticipated significant rise in wheat output will bring about a recovery in some major exporting countries after last year's weather problems. Larger outputs are expected in North America and Europe, although the highest recovery is expected in the European Commonwealth of Independent States, after reduced production last year. In Asia, wheat output in 2007 is likely to remain close to last year's level. A reduction in China's production will likely be offset by an increase in India, where plantings increased sharply, largely in response to the government policy to encourage food grains production.

India has recently forecast a rabi wheat output of 73.70 million tons, against 69.35 million tons produced last year. In North Africa, however, a smaller wheat crop is forecast, as weather conditions have been less favorable than last year when a bumper harvest was achieved.

In the southern hemisphere, where most crops have still to be sown, early indications suggest little change in production in South America, but in Oceania, assuming a return to a normal season after last year's drought, the output is expected to recover sharply in Australia.

The paddy season is well advanced among countries located south of and along the equator, but is just starting in the northern hemisphere, where the bulk of the rice is produced.

Although still tentative, the FAO's first forecast indicates that for the group of 82 low-income, food-deficit countries, cereal production could remain around the above-average level of 2006. Following improved harvests in most of these countries, cereal imports in the 2006-07 marketing year are expected to decline in most regions.