TEHRAN – On Friday, a telegram channel released what it said were 'top secret' U.S. intelligence documents prepared by the U.S. Geospatial Intelligence Agency. The leaked documents spun out Washington’s assessment of the Israeli Air Force’s alleged preparations to attack Iran.  

According to the documents, the U.S. has been observing Israel prepare for what seems could be a major military operation against Iran. The documents indicate that since October 8, Washington has watched Israel move a significant number of advanced missiles to the Hatzerim Airbase south of the occupied territories. On October 15 and 16, the regime moved more weapons to the Ramot David and Ramon airbases. The Israeli Air Force also conducted a large-scale training exercise on October 15, involving multiple aircraft, including tankers and Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS) which are essentially flying radar stations. 

The telegram channel called ‘Middle East Spectator’ said it received the documents through an anonymous source on the same messaging app. The source refused to identify himself and claimed to work in the U.S. Department of Defense, the news aggregator explained. “We are independent journalists and are not tied to any government entity or organization. We are exercising our full and inalienable right of press freedom.”

The telegram channel’s report quickly transformed into a global firestorm. Within hours, the story blazed across the front pages of major Western and Israeli news outlets, fueled by the flames of concern from intelligence agencies. CNN and Axios were the first to fan the flames, with Axios quoting U.S. intelligence officials as saying they were "extremely concerned" about the supposed leak. "A U.S. official told Axios that the alleged leak is extremely concerning," the outlet reported, echoing the sentiment of a senior Israeli official who confirmed the leak and its “serious” implications for the regime.

The first U.S. official to eventually address the matter was U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson, who announced that the American government was conducting an investigation. “There’s some serious allegations being made there,” the Republican told CNN on Sunday. “The investigation’s underway and I’ll get a briefing on that in a couple of hours.”

Johnson did not comment on the authenticity of the leaks, but the New York Times has reported that officials acknowledged privately that the documents were authentic.

What do the leaks indicate?

Despite the gravity of the leaked classified documents, many experts believe their contents are unlikely to change the course of potential Israeli action against Iran. Since Iran launched a barrage of approximately 200 ballistic missiles at Israeli military and intelligence bases in the occupied territories 20 days ago, the regime’s high-ranking officials have escalated their rhetoric, saying they will make Iran pay a ‘painful’ price. 

While Iran’s attack only targeted military sites, Israeli politicians have openly discussed a range of potential strikes, from targeting military bases to crippling oil production and even hitting nuclear facilities. This is the second time Iran has directly challenged Israel from its own soil, following a similar but less powerful attack in April. Now, with Hezbollah adding to the regime’s woes by striking a Golani brigade camp and Prime Minister Netanyahu's residence, the pressure is on for Israel's next move. This decision carries monumental weight: Any potential strike against Iran could either bolster the regime’s positions or as Iranian officials have warned, accelerate Israel's perceived decline, a trend that's become increasingly apparent over the past year. 

So, while the leaked intelligence documents about Israel's response may not change the course of events, they do raise questions about the source of the leak. 

If the source of the leak is indeed an individual within the Department of Defense, as the Telegram channel claims, it could signal a deep rift within the American government. This could indicate a significant group of military and security analysts who oppose the current policies of policymakers. Echoing concerns voiced by many experts, these individuals may be deeply worried about Washington's potential sleepwalk into disaster by failing to restrain Israel's actions in West Asia. 

However, if a government entity is behind the leak, the implications become even more complex. Washington could be seeking to prevent a full-blown conflict by alerting Iran to Israel's potential attack. Alternatively, Israel may be deliberately spreading misinformation to confuse Iran. Or perhaps Tehran is deliberately leaking information, aiming to demonstrate its superior intelligence capabilities and discourage Israeli aggression.