Last Update: 25 July 2012 16:01 GMT
The ruling of North Korea by an undemocratic government over the past five decades is gradually paving the ground for an imminent political implosion.
The country’s new leader is known for his lack of experience which is seen by many as one of the most dangerous threats to the country’s stability. Kim Jong-un has spent many years outside North Korea and is unfamiliar with many influential people in the policy-making process. This, naturally, could lead to serious problems as generals, who for many years have played major role in the administration, may become dissatisfied.
Beside neighboring South Korea, major global powers including the United States and China are also seeking to create changes in North Korea’s political system. They will use everything at their disposal to speed up the process of change in the country. Influential figures in the government seem very disappointed about the new young leader, which could trigger a coup.
The military chief was dismissed to remove opposition to Kim’s economic reforms, regarded by many as ineffectual. North Korea’s economy is in tatters and needs a miracle, not the Chinese model desired by Kim, to be fixed.
In a country where parties and political gatherings are prohibited and free speech is muzzled, small reforms are seen by many as pointless. Moreover, North Korea lacks the needed infrastructure to bring about economic and social change. The reforms in North Korea could be its undoing. Just look at Myanmar.
Dr. Javad Mansouri is a political analyst based in Tehran who previously served as Iran’s ambassador to China.
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