TEHRAN – According to numerical weather prediction modeling, the precipitation in the fall is predicted to be less than normal, while in winter, it is expected to be above normal, Ahad Vazifeh, the head of the Meteorological Organization, has said.

The current water year started on September 23, with rainfall in the northern part of the country. Since the beginning of the fall till September 26, an average of 0.5 mm of rainfall was recorded across the country. Compared to the long-term amount of 0.4 mm, it has increased by 19.3 percent, he noted.

During the same period, the average temperature was about 1.3°C lower than the long-term average. Only in Sistan-Baluchestan, Kerman, and Hormozgan provinces, the temperature was above the long-term average, the official said.

Despite increased rainfall at the beginning of the fall, the precipitation is expected to be below normal in most areas. Rainfall is also likely to start later than normal with a delay of about 10 to 15 days, Vazifeh noted.

From October 7 to November 6, the temperature will be normal in the eastern half of the country and the southern coastal strip, and 0.5 to 1°C above normal in other regions.

From mid-November to mid-December, the average air temperature is predicted to be normal in parts of the eastern strip, northern strip, and provinces within the desert plain. It will be 1-2°C and 0.5 to 1°C above normal in the west and southwest, and other regions, respectively.

According to numerical modelling, rainfall is likely to be near-normal at the end of the fall and in winter. Winter accounts for a large share of the rainfall, particularly in the southern parts, the official said.

In the past Iranian year (March 2023 – March 2024), precipitation was 50 to 75 percent below normal in the southern parts of the country, he added.

The official went on to say that over the past five years, the country has experienced consecutive droughts. Due to the significant reduction in autumn, winter, and spring rainfall, the previous water year  (September 22, 2024 – September 22, 2025)  was one of the exceptional drought years of Iran; it came to an end with 142.3 mm of precipitation, showing a 39.4 percent drop compared to the long-term figure of 234.9 mm.

During the last month of the summer, 4.1 mm of rainfall was registered across the country, which has decreased by 2.5 percent compared to the long-term figure of 4.2 mm.

Throughout the summer, recorded rainfall amounted to 8 mm, showing a 27.9 percent decline in comparison to the long-term figure of 11.1 mm.

According to official statistics, groundwater levels and dams’ storage have noticeably dropped, and water stress is being felt more than ever in densely populated areas, threatening water security, increasing the likelihood of land subsidence, and intensifying drought.

Iran is facing an unprecedented water crisis that threatens not only its agricultural sector but also regional stability and global food markets.

MT/MG